The Origins of COVID-19

 

I'm still trying to understand why this matters to so many people, but the issue of where the SARS-CoV-2 virus came from has galvanized discussion among scientists, intelligence agencies and, of course, the anti-vaxx community for approximately 3 years.

There are two main theories out there, as likely everyone knows by now.  I use the word theories but I'm not even certain that's the right word.  In science, the word theory has a special meaning, specifically a  possible explanation based on supporting evidence.  I'll leave it to the reader to decide which explanation (s) meet that definition.

The Field Museum presents a clear definition of what theory means in science:

A theory is a carefully thought-out explanation for observations of the natural world that has been constructed using the scientific method, and which brings together many facts and hypotheses.

 As I said, there are two possible explanations out there:

1) The virus jumped from wild animals to humans at a so-called "wet market" in Wuhan, China.

2) The virus leaked from a lab, also in Wuhan, China.

In recent days, the whole debate has been ignited again with comments from the FBI and other American intelligence agencies.  It seems likely that many people have latched onto these recent reports because they have always been convinced that the virus emerged as the result of a lab accident.  

This article from NPR covers the main discussion points quite well:

What does the science say about the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Virologist Angela Rasmussen, who contributed to one of the Science papers, says the DOE's "low confident" conclusion doesn't "negate the affirmative evidence for zoonotic [or animal] origin nor do they add any new information in support of lab origin."

"Many other [news] outlets are presenting this as new conclusive proof that the lab origin hypothesis is equally as plausible as the zoonotic origin hypothesis," Rasmussen wrote in an email to NPR, "and that is a misrepresentation of the evidence for either."

One of the actual scientific publications referred to in that article can be seen here.

Their "One-Sentence Summary" says (and I paraphrase): Geographical clustering of the earliest known cases and the proximity of positive environmental samples to live animal vendors suggest that the Wuhan Market was the site of the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.

One

sentence

summary:

Geographical

clustering

of

the

earliest

known

COVID-19

cases

and

the

proximity

of

positive

environmental

samples

to

live-animal

vendors

suggest

that

the

Huanan

Seafood

Wholesale

Market

in

Wuhan

was

the

site

of origin of the COVID-19 pandemic

One

sentence

summary:

Geographical

clustering

of

the

earliest

known

COVID-19

cases

and

the

proximity

of

positive

environmental

samples

to

live-animal

vendors

suggest

that

the

Huanan

Seafood

Wholesale

Market

in

Wuhan

was

the

site

of origin of the COVID-19 pandemic

This article from the Rand Corporation is a bit dated (from June 2021), but briefly mentions the main possibilities.

It seems the debate will continue and might never be conclusively resolved.  But some adherents on both sides of the issue seem to have a point to make, so I'm sure the matter won't go away any time soon.