Continuing the Fun & Games - Watching the World Economy

Wild gyrations on world stock markets, advances in the price of gold, downgrades in the credit rating of the USA, a crisis in Greece and other European countries.... It makes for interesting times.

I just finished listening to a podcast from the BBC World Service (Business Daily) for August 26th. One of the interviews was with Jim Rogers, an American investor and financial commentator and one of the founders of the Quantum Fund with George Soros. What little I've read about him doesn't convince me that I'd agree with all of his views, but it's hard to argue with success. So, what did he have to say?

The next decade (or two or three) may be lost to an economic downturn. He pointed to Japan, which has gone through 2 such lost decades. In his view, the USA is in a far worse situation, being not only the biggest debtor nation, but the biggest debtor nation in history. Asia (China, etc) owns most of that debt.

As the 20th Century began, the advantage moved from the UK to the USA, a move, he says, that was exacerbated by a financial crisis and mistakes by politicians. As we move into the 21st Century, the advantage is moving from the USA to Asia, a move exacerbated by a financial crisis and mistakes by politicians. Sound familiar?

When asked what American politicians could do, he suggested perhaps an education about the world and their role/place in it. Cutting spending would be crucial. The USA has military bases in 120 countries and those bases were put there by politicians. These bases are making things worse for America. He feels that the USA needs to get a more realistic view of it's place in the world, much as the UK did as their world empire began to collapse a century ago. Sadly, if you follow any of the political comments by presidential hopefuls as the USA stumbles it's way to 2012, there is little evidence of any realistic views coming from anyone.

Despite any economic slowdown, he sees commodities and agriculture as the big opportunities of the coming decades, those and Asia (China specifically). Not that China hasn't/isn't making it's own mistakes (currency convertibility issues, among others...), but that's where he sees the dynamism in the coming years.

Interesting listening. I'm sure my financial friends will want to weigh in on this one.

Exploring the Koots 08/26 - Stalking the Elusive Glacier

Stu and I decided that another exploratory hike was in order, just to see if there was another possible access route to the Horseshoe Glacier. Accordingly, on Friday, we thrashed our way up a valley at about km 27 (?) on the Glacier Creek FSR, a valley that heads towards Ochre Peak and one tongue of the Glacier in question.

To our surprise, we found a flagged trail most of the way up the valley. No idea who put it there or why, but it saved us lots of trouble. We did manage to find some difficult hiking, though, because we decided to investigate the right side of the valley, having seen a gully that we thought we could climb up to access the glacier.

To get to that gully, we had to spend some time in thickets of alder. Then we had to find the (only) crossing of a seemingly small but raging creek. And the gully? It went well for awhile, but as it narrowed, we were eventually faced with a small, cold waterfall that we decided we just didn't want to climb through. So, we retreated. Score so far: Us: Zero, Valley: 1. Needless to say, extricating ourselves from that side of the valley involved more alder thrashing, not helped by the realization that perhaps we should have tried the left side of the valley after all...., but too late in the day to change that. By the time we were back at the truck, we'd put in a hard 8 hours of work. Certainly enough for a Friday. A few pictures are here, towards the end of the album. Sorry, but no pictures of us in the alder.

Maybe we should try a different glacier....

Earl Grey Pass - Again

Ever since hiking the Earl Grey Trail last September, we've been thinking of re-visiting the east side of Earl Grey Pass just to see the scenery that we missed the first time. As dedicated readers will recall, our last 2 days on the trail were rather wet and Earl Grey Pass was foggy, rainy and cold. We didn't linger at the Pass then to look at scenery we couldn't see.

With clear skies and warm temperatures seeming pretty certain for a few days, Catherine and I threw together our hiking equipment and some food and made the drive over to Invermere and up the Toby Creek Valley past Panorama to the Earl Grey Trailhead. Interestingly, although it's close to us as the crow flies, the Subaru doesn't fly the same routes as crows and it took us 6 hours to make it to the trailhead.

We used the remaining couple of hours of daylight to hike to a small campsite we knew of about 8 or 9 km along the trail and were set up before dark.

On Monday, we hiked the 10 km or so to Earl Grey Pass, admired the views, had a rest and lunch in the alpine meadows and hiked the 10 km back to our camp. It was a long, hot, tiring day, but the scenery was great. Nice views of Hamill Glacier (photo above), as well as the Toby Glacier, Toby Falls and spots between.

The next morning, we packed up and hiked back to the car and drove home. Pictures of the scenery we enjoyed can be seen here. The album is a collection of summer pictures and this trip's digital images are part way through the album.

Horseshoe Glacier Exploring

This past week, in honour of Gerald's Thrash & Bash (T&B), four of us decided to explore the area around the Horseshoe Glacier, a smallish icefield not too far from Jumbo Pass, at the south-east end of the Glacier Creek valley.

It's a 2-hour drive up the Lake and up to the end of the Glacier Creek FSR, followed by a short distance past the Jumbo Pass trailhead. Our progress there was stopped by a massive pile of trees, debris from an avalanche sometime during the winter. We made the transition to foot power and spent the next couple of hours making our way up the valley until we found a good campsite in a cirque just below the toe of one tongue of the glacier.

We made two forays up two different pieces of glacier, looking for a route onto the main Horseshoe Glacier Icefield, but nothing we climbed had that direct connection. We had nice views of pretty much everything, including Monica Meadows to the north, Jumbo Pass to the north-east, Hamill Creek and Earl Grey Pass, a trail we had hiked last September.

On our last day, we hiked out via a slightly different route, taking a faint trail along the crest of a lateral moraine. It was easier and faster than the route in, with much less boulder-hopping, but the narrow crest was probably the most dangerous part of the trip in some ways. It was a very deep valley viewed from the crest of the moraine, so we were especially careful as we walked along it.

Pictures of the trip can be seen here.

Riding the (T)Rails Again

In conjunction with the family gathering in the South Okanagan, a group of us decided to have a go at the Kettle Valley Railway trail system (the KVR). Accordingly, the group packed up bikes and water and food and headed for Myra Station first thing in the morning.

The drive there - north to Kelowna and up to Okanagan Mountain) took longer than we'd anticipated, so it was almost 11 am before we finally took off on the bikes. The Myra Canyon part of the trip is 11 km one way, and that's where most of the group stopped, returning the 11 km back to the Myra Station parking lot. Demitri and I kept on going and made the long ride all the way to Penticton, another 3+ hours. My main feelings were that a 2% grade isn't really all that much of a downhill, especially when you were hoping for one, and I really need a bike with suspension if I'm going to do much of that kind of trail again. Almost shook my fillings loose!

We were thirsty by the time we arrived in Penticton so we rested in a convenient pub while we waited for the rescue vehicle to come pick us up and take us back to the party. Nice.

The Gathering

Spent a couple of days in the South Okanagan to celebrate the 90th birthday of my mother-in-law. Had a gathering with nearly everyone from the clan in attendance. Sunny and warm. Lots of food (as usual with this group) and with a chance to do a longer bike ride on the Kettle Valley RailTrail system (see next post).

I still can't say that the Okanagan is among my favourite places in BC, but it was nice to visit with members of the clan, had a nice bike ride, ate more food than I probably should have....

Is This the End of the World as We Know It?

This post is about government deficits, debt, revenues and spending. I know, these are topics that cause eyes to glaze over and attention to wander, but it's that lack of attention that has landed us in this mess. Well, the "US", not so much "us".

Ever since the circus in Washington about the debt ceiling, spending cuts, "NO NEW TAXES" and the downgrade by bond rating agency S&P, there has been an abundance of articles, blogs and other commentaries about what this means, whether S&P got it wrong, whose fault it is, blah, blah, blah. One very good post on the eventual outcome of all this excitement can be seen here.

Rather than pontificate about current account balances, trade thingies, interest costs as a percentage of GDP and all those similar economic-money-type-things, I'd like to make some simple points, ones that all of us simple types can understand. So here goes:

Some earlier administration under the "leadership" of an ex-presidential-type-dork got the USA into an extended war. The Washington Post tried to estimate the total cost. Let's just say it's in the multi-trillion $$$ range. Can you say : "Very Expensive and Unnecessary"?

The very rich now pay much less in taxes than they did only a few short years ago. This proves once again how important it is to have friends in high places, something the very rich generally seem to have. To add a further point to this travesty, because of caps on social security taxes, the rich actually pay LESS as a percentage of their income than the poor. Nice situation if you can arrange it for yourself.

The Republicans and the Tea-Partiers aren't interested in anything even close to a universal health-care program. They don't even like the desperately inadequate system they now have. What the hell, THEY'RE OK, what's wrong with everyone else? So, guess what, it's social programs where this crowd firmly believes cuts in government spending should happen. It's a matter of where you come down on the swords vs ploughshares debate.

I could go on, but as an adult of several decades, my fiscal knowledge works like this: Ya shouldn't be spending what ya don't have. If ya don't have enough bucks to pay the bills, ya got 2 choices (and maybe should pursue both of them): increase your revenues and cut your spending on the things you can do without. Since I can't see why the poor should pay a greater percentage of their income to support their country, that leaves the rich. And if you want an expenditure to cut, how about some of those overseas wars. Just for a start.

But what the hell - I don't live (or vote or pledge allegiance) in the USA so it's easy for me to offer suggestions. It's just if the USA could get it's fiscal house in order, the end of shockwaves coming from south of the 49th would make things a whole lot easier for the rest of the world. The recent standoff in Washington would have been comical if it wasn't so very serious. The solution??? Raise the debt ceiling. Just make it legal for the government to borrow more.

Sigh.

Mt Willet

Four of us spent a day on the approach to Mt Willet, a twin-peaked mountain up the Lake from us.

The weather was pleasant, the alpine meadows were in good condition and the scenery was the usual West Kootenay wonderful.

Unfortunately, one member of the group was fighting the beginnings of a cold and in general the group was feeling the effects of a late start to the summer hiking/conditioning season, so we only made it to the base of Mt Willet before it was time to turn around. No summit today.

Mountaineering with the "Old Folks"

Nearly each summer I volunteer as a Camp Manager and amateur leader on one of the Club's mountaineering camps. The past few have been camps catering to a "more mature" group where, generally, I have been one of the younger members in attendance.

This year's camp was at Lake O'Hara, based out of the Elizabeth Parker Hut. This is actually the first time I've had much chance to explore the O'Hara area. My general feeling is that it's a bit too developed (lodge, campground, bus access...) and too many people.... My previous visits have been overnight stays and then moving on out of the area the next day. This time I did get to most of the significant parts of the area: McArthur Lake, Odaray Prospect, Morning Glory Lake, Lake Oesa, the Alpine Circuit, Mt Yukness, Opabin Plateau.... And it all happened in great weather. A group of us also had a quick climb of Mt Schaffer, a 5.4 rated climb - mostly a scramble but with a couple of "interesting" bits, especially if you're climbing without a belay....

As always with groups of this kind, most participants are kind, pleasant, interesting people who are very glad to get out into the mountains and share hikes and climbs, and who are very grateful for everything you do for them to make the camp more comfortable. As well, you usually have someone who is more critical of everything and perhaps another who might have trouble walking along a trail alone without getting lost. Always an interesting mix.

The food (supplied by Yamnuska this year) was excellent. The guide, an older, very experienced fellow from Calgary I've worked with several times over the years, was excellent and fun to be with. You always learn a few new tricks watching how these guides handle situations with "clients".

I haven't decided about next year. Impending foot surgery might decide for me and maybe it's time to "retire" from this for awhile. Still, Lake O'Hara, it was great to visit you this time. Pictures have been posted of the week.