Into the Pandemic - Oil Prices

It's Monday, March 30th, 2020 and I'm hanging out at Isolation Manor, following some of the news, working in the shop and planning lessons for our grandsons (with help from the other occupant here at Isolation Manor, aka: Grandma)

This story appeared just now, how oil prices  dropped by a large amount again today.  West Texas Intermediate has dropped below US$20 for the first time in 18 years.  Canadian Tar Sands Oil is essentially worthless right now (click on the picture to read the article):

It's not that we didn't see this coming.  Demand has plummeted.  People aren't driving, not traveling and planes aren't flying.

Coincidentally, I was listening to a podcast from one of my favourite shows, Freakonomics.  The podcast was called "Does Anyone Really Know What Socialism Is?"   If you follow this link, you can either read a full transcript or listen to the podcast.  It's quite interesting.

What caught my attention was when the podcast started talking about Venezuela and how it had become so dependent on oil a few decades ago and how that was causing problems now (and it wasn't even talking about the current disaster for energy resources).  No, the talk was about how some have decided to brand Venezuela as a "socialist" country.  What socialism actually is.  What damage dependence on one volatile resource can cause for a country.

And then, for contrast, the podcast moved on to compare Venezuela's experience with that in Norway and Sweden.  Remember that this podcast was about socialism, not oil prices.  And they talked about Bernie Sanders.  Apparently not even Bernie gets it right.  What he's talking about isn't socialism.  The take home message here, among others, is that socialism isn't social democracy.

Worth listening to and thinking about.  There's not much that can be done in the middle of a pandemic to sort problems like these, but when we come out the other side, there should be a discussion about future directions, specifically our continued insistence on developing a resource that has so much price volatility and insisting that a single such resource underpin so much of any economy.  And that's not to even mention all the other problems those resources cause.

Isolation Manor, Out.

Into the Pandemic - Potpourri

From Isolation Manor - March 29th, 2020

Total Confirmed Cases: 720,000    Total Deaths: 34,000

The USA has quickly moved well beyond any other country with about 141,000 cases and nearly 2500 deaths.  The vast majority of them are in the state of New York.

On Friday, Trump made this memorable quote:  

This whatever they want to call it. You call it a germ, you can call it a flu, you can call it a virus. You know, you can call it many different names. I’m not sure anybody even knows what it is…

I'm getting the impression that this fellow has no real idea how much a lot of people actually DO know.  Of course, he doesn't understand that anyone could possibly know more about something than he does.

Not that Trump is especially an outlier in this.  The President of Mexico, at least until recently, has been advocating amulets and prayer cards.

Humour has been flowing fast and free on social media.  It's good to see people having fun with this because the alternative would be to sit around and fret.

This is the Canadian way of maintaining social distancing.

There has been an updated version of Bohemian Rhapsody posted on YouTube.  

There have been many jokes relating to sharing the same house with the same person, day after day after day after day...  I liked this one:

I told my wife how thankful I was to have someone I enjoyed being quarantined with. She said "must be nice".

Here at Isolation Manor, life goes on, much as expected.  I'm doing a bit of special housecleaning, working on the van, some time in the yard and waiting for the rain to stop so I can go hack up some trees with my chain saw.  The other resident here has been doing much the same, playing online bridge, talking on the phone, cooking...  No, I don't think we'll be losing much weight this way.  Started a batch of beer and wine.  There are some things that you just need to have during long periods at home.

We've also been doing some lesson planning.  "School" for our grandsons starts on Monday morning.  I spent a few hours getting my ducks in a row.  At least I hope they're in a row.  I haven't taught this grade level before.  However, they're not teenagers so how hard could it be.  Grandma is starting with Math and I'm doing a Nature Study with Birds as the centerpiece.  This could be interesting.

Isolation Manor - Out.

Into the Pandemic - On the Home Front IV

Posted from Isolation Manor on March 28th, 2020

Total cases worldwide: 621,000    Total deaths: 28,600

Various parts of the world are still unraveling - thinking of Italy, the USA, ,Spain....  In some, we can only watch as their leaders make one bad decision after another.  But that's for another post.

Conspiracy theorists are coming out of the woodwork.  They see this as a manufactured opportunity to embed us all with RFD chips and make us all get vaccinated.  They're as loony as the Chemtrails bunch.  My feeling about ALL of them is that they must have an unusual level of confidence in the ability of literally thousands of people to keep secret their nefarious activities.  In an era where it's almost impossible to fart without someone recording it on a phone or having your faux pas posted to the web, it's inconceivable that thousands could be covering up anything so big.  But that's for another post too.  [Note to self - stop with the scroll through Facebook each morning.  Most of what you see is NOT helpful].....

On the home front....

After almost 16 years out of the classroom, I find myself in the position of needing to make some Unit plans and set up lessons for teaching to our grandsons online.  "School" starts Monday.

Our granddaughters in New Jersey have been having regular "school" for a week or more now.  Their schools have been handing out materials to parents and the girls have been spending each morning working on various activities.  We've been "visiting" using Skype and Grandma has been reading stories to them.

Our grandsons have been on March break for the past 2 weeks.  That's coming to an end and lessons start on Monday.

Grandma is planning to start with math skills.  I'm developing a Nature Study unit that I hope will incorporate spelling, research, art, nature, science, reading, writing....all through the medium of Birds.  Plans are in the works.

Yesterday, I got online with one of my neighbours with whom I play music occasionally.  We wanted to see if one of these video chat utilities could be used to have a musical jam session.  Our conclusion was that it's better for chatting.  It was hard to hear each other's instrument properly, and that kind of defeats the purpose of the whole exercise for us.  We're going to wait until we get a sunny day when we will bring our lawn chairs, sit outside somewhere (6 feet apart) and play some music together.

We continue our usual projects.  I work in the shop, keep the van build project going, Catherine is out in the yard starting the spring planting.  It's been too cool for much, but we persevere.

We had a foray out to the village yesterday to resupply the larder.  We went together, only one went into the store, when she came back out, I had a pail of water available for hand washing and we left the bags in the back of the truck.  Once home, we tried a process of bringing them inside that I saw on YouTube a few days ago.  It's loosely based on sterile surgical technique and looks like this:

At this point, it's probably overkill, and there is still some discussion about how concerned we need to be about viruses on packaging and food, but we wanted to try the process out in case it does become necessary.  I've been wandering around with a small spray bottle of bleach solution, just cleaning up various surfaces - light switches, door knobs, handles of other items....

Catherine has an online bridge game scheduled for this afternoon.  They seem to be working out pretty well.

There is more.  Always more.  But it's time to get on with my day and actually accomplish something.

Isolation Manor - Out.

Into the Pandemic - The Political Side III

Isolation Manor - Pandemic Dateline - March 25, 2020 (7:45 pm)

Total confirmed cases: 471,000   Total deaths: 21,283

This could become a full-time occupation (obsession? compulsion?).  Just recording bits of news that deal directly with the political side of the pandemic.  You would think that with all that's going on, public health concerns would be foremost, but you'd be wrong.

This publication created a timeline of Trump's responses to the growing COVID-19 situation.

New York City will soon be the epicenter of the global pandemic.  It's healthcare system will soon be in complete overload, according to CNN.

Trump is already calling for a resumption of "life as normal" possibly by Easter.  Never mind that hes being contradicted by all the experts.  He must have some inside information that he's not sharing.  This article from Bloomberg  takes a sensible look at what would have to happen before life could return to normal.  I bet I';m not the only person who can't see that happening by Easter.

The Globe and Mail had a recent article about Trump's decision that would pit the economy against human lives.

In Arizona, one person is dead and another was hospitalized, after taking chloroquine (one of the ingredients in aquarium cleaner).  Why?  Because Trump said it was "...basically pretty much a cure".  It has been approved to treat malaria and a form of arthritis, but definitely not for COVID19 and certainly not in the chemical formulation it's used as in aquarium cleaner.  This is how Natural Selection works folks.

Yes, apparently he did.  One article here explains why this created such a problem.  When asked about this, Trump responded that it was "a nasty question".  Memo to anyone wanting information from this president - no nasty questions.

This article from the Washington Post goes into some of the details.

And there is more.  Lots more.  In my next post, though, I'd like to examine some of the free stuff that's suddenly available to all of us on lockdown.

Isolation Manor .. Out.

Into the Pandemic - On the Home Front III

Isolation Manor - Pandemic Dateline - March 25, 2020

Total global cases: 441,000   Total deaths: approaching 20,000

Everyone is finding new and creative ways to while away the hours (and hours and hours and hours) that we now have to fill.  Orders from our masters have made it quite clear that we are to "Go Home and Stay Home".  With some exceptions, apparently....  If you need food, you can make forays outside to get some.  You are allowed to go get some exercise, just STAY AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE.  I've been eyeing the mule deer that wander by.  I'm pretty sure I could catch one with a long stick, perhaps a lasso, just to "beef up" the larder, of course (no pun intended).  I have time to practice....

Much of my time has been taken up with building an RV style camper van.  That story is being told in another series of posts - that story appears here.  More to come

On Monday, we had a brief spell of nice weather so I installed some solar panels on the roof of the van.  The next day it snowed. All day. I need to remember that it's still Farch in this part of Canada.  The polyurethane I used to glue the panels to the roof normally takes a few days to cure.  With current conditions, I figure it should cure in about a month.  Some pictures from yesterday.

The other resident of Isolation Manor has been exploring ways of playing Bridge on-line.  This picture was taken yesterday during the inaugural session.  This isn't as bad as you might think.  She plays contract bridge and chit-chat is seriously discouraged.  So being in a house great distances away from your playing partners shouldn't be a problem.

Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of cleaning a part of the house each day.  I have to say that the response was underwhelming.  I might have to take matters into my own hands....

My sister-in-law is a lecturer at an Eastern Canadian institution of advanced learning.  She's been switching over to on-line education and had this post earlier this morning:

In this choppy changey time, I feel "normal" only while recording video lectures for my students. Listening to myself drone on is such a comfort. After I've exhausted course material, I will create narrated slides on the following topics. Any other suggestions?1. Coping 101: Name your anxiety (steal one from literature if you must. Morag Gunn and I are besties)2. The psychology of why the exercise bike you bought a year ago will *still* never see your ass (and why this does not matter)
3. Disorder 101: Why you should unfriend Type A personalities during a pandemic
4. Coping 102: Fuck productivity
5. Disorder 102: Why pandemic updates on CBC are punctuated with ads for travel, financial investments and health insurance.

My grandsons are passionate Lego builders.  They have been busy with projects and scenarios involving that passion.  One of them was describing some of their "creatures" to me a few days ago.  I have NO idea where these things come from (and what goes on inside an 8-year-old brain is a puzzle)....  They've also been working at their art projects, this one out on the deck on an old fridge.

I'm taking a couple of hours to go groom the community XC ski trails.  It's a good place to be completely isolated, it's out in the fresh air and I get to roar around on powerful equipment.  What more could I ask for?

Isolation Manor, out.

Into the Pandemic - The Lighter Side

Pandemic Date Line March 24, 2020

Confirmed cases: 417,000   Deaths: 18,600   

Yes, even in the midst of a global virus threat, people have found lots to laugh at.  Of course, none of them are likely sick themselves, just yet, and it is only a few days into the directive to "go home and stay home".  Nevertheless, it shows that people can find something to all laugh about.

Parents are starting to work form home.  We could see an increase in this kind of strategy:

Parents are also starting, gradually, to take on the role of home-schooling instructor.  This reality spawned these:

                

There have been jokes about social distancing:

        

There are dozens of jokes about the insane amount of toilet paper that people are buying:

There are comments about how this connects with climate change actions:

With Easter coming up in a couple of weeks, I recently saw this:

The "stiff upper lip" generally attributed to the English has come in for a few comments:

There supposedly a new Lego set out just in time for the pandemic:

And dozens and dozens more.  Obviously too much time on people's hands, but if it makes people laugh in the current climate of concern, that's a good thing.

Into the Pandemic - The Political Side II

Pandemic Dateline March 22nd, 2020

It's been rather interesting to see the change in rhetoric on Facebook and, I assume, other parts of Social Media.  Here in Canada, even the Trudeau haters have gone fairly quiet.  These are folk who just couldn't abide the present Prime Minister, whether it was his heritage, his youth, his selfies, his socks...regardless, young Justin seems to be doing about as well as could be expected, given the circumstances.  It also helps to see the ineptitude from certain other political leaders.  At least here in Canada our politicians are allowing the medical experts take the lead.

Anti-Vaxxers have even come in for a bit of pointed teasing.  Take this article from The Beaverton.  And cartoons similar to this:

There are quite a few pointed jabs at the Commander-in-Chief south of the 49th, speaking of ineptitude.

Consider this article from Ralph Nader... "Lunging between vitriol and flattery, Trump doesn't know how to get out of the hole he's dug"    "He fibs, flails, fails, scapegoats, and never admits he was wrong or mistaken."

The Atlantic has published a number of articles that take aim at America, Trump and others that it feels have obstructed the kind of rapid response that this crisis needed.  For example, this article: "The Coronavirus Called America's Bluff".  The magazine has also gone so far as to call Trump's presidency over.

National Public Radio in the USA had this article in which the following quote stood out for me: "The differences between political parties are stark, with a majority of Republicans saying it is overblown and the vast majority of Democrats considering it a legitimate threat."

There will be more....  

Into the Pandemic - On the Home Front II

It's now Friday, March 20th, 2020.  Events have been moving at a near-breakneck speed.  Just try to remember last week when all we were concerned about was a time change to DST, a full moon and Friday the 13th.  Just last week, we were just discussing whether we should press ahead with our trip to the Grand Canyon where we had planned to hike for a few days.  Today would have been our day to hike down to the canyon bottom.

Since then, of course, announcements have come fast and furious.  Repeated messages about social distancing, schools closing, city facilities closing all over the place, an upcoming semi-closing of the US-Canada border, airlines shutting down various routes, assorted layoffs, a certain amount of near-panic buying (particularly TP, for some strange reason) and daily increases in the number of people infected, a slowly increasing number of deaths from the virus....  It's been a bit of a blur.

Just yesterday, Italy's death toll of 3400 passed that of China.  In good news, China has reported a second day of no community-transmitted cases.

We've been pretty much staying home.  Brief forays out to pick up some supplies but otherwise spending time with our grandsons, walks in the park, even a campfire to cook hot dogs, some bike riding, some Skyping with other relatives....  Our grandkids have been working on art projects and some school work.  That will have to increase over the coming weeks.  My partner has been looking to playing bridge by computer.  Not a computer game but a real game of bridge with 3 other people, all at their computers.  I'm painting, laying down some new flooring (helped by one of my grandsons) and continuing work on the camper van project.

Fortunately, the weather has been nearly perfect.  It's been sunny, clear skies and relatively mild temperatures.  Perfect for getting outdoors.

Coming up, we have a day-long explore of a town near here, Castlegar, that has quite a number of sculptures set up around town.  We're going to do an art walk there and have a picnic in the park.  Perhaps teach the grandsons how to take good pictures.  There is also school work for them....

Other than that, at this time, we have no idea how things will evolve.  Whoever it was who said "May you live in interesting times" likely didn't have this in mind.

Into The Pandemic - All the News

Yes, there has been lots of media coverage of this thing.  I know many people are tired of it all.  Some even think it's overblown, BS, a hoax, a plot by the government to control us.

So, to counter such notions, here is a message from that government:

Into the Pandemic - The Political Side

No crisis would be complete without its share of politics, and this COVID-19 pandemic is garnering its fair share.

Here in Canada, things have been pretty even-handed.  For the most part, governments, provincial and federal, have stayed out of the way and allowed our healthcare professionals to take the lead.  Here in BC, we have been getting daily updates from the Provincial Health Officer backed up by the Minister of Health.

Federally, the government has limited its involvement to announcements of funding support and what bits of reassurance it can offer at this time.  Various national health protection bodies are doing what they are supposed to do.

Things get more interesting if you look at what's going on in other countries.

This opinion piece appeared in the CBC on March 12th.  Trump's Narcissism Carnival-Show is Dangerous in the Face of COVID-19.  The author calls events unfolding in the USA "a sorry spectacle".  Other reports seem to bear that out.

This article calls the current situation a "defining crisis" for Trump's presidency.  Even the usual Trump cheerleaders were muted by the President's announcements made on March 13th.

Once again, from across the pond, The Guardian went so far as to fact-check Trump's recent statements and found most of them wanting, to various degrees.

What is fact is that, of a few days ago, more tests for the virus had been done in the province of BC than in all of the USA.  Hopefully that will change in the coming days.  It's difficult to understand the nature of the pandemic when you don't know how many people actually have the virus.

David Frum, a former speechwriter for GW Bush, pulled no punches in his criticism of Trump's handling of the current crisis so far:

There is always something malign in Trump’s incompetence. He has no care or concern for others; he cannot absorb the trouble and suffering of others as real. He monotones his way through words of love and compassion, but those words plainly have no content or meaning for him. The only thing that is real is his squalid vanity. This virus threatens to pierce that vanity, so he denied it as long as he could. What he refuses to acknowledge cannot be real, can it?

 Some writers have compared the White House's response to the current pandemic to its response to climate change.  Deny it as long as possible, then offer thoughts and prayers.  As in this story.

And as in this video clip from MSNBC

Here in Canada, we have our own version of a know-nothing blowhard in the person of Premier Ford of Ontario, who, just the other day, advised families to "take a vacation" during their March break.  You have to wonder what numbers he was looking at.

I'm sure there will be more to come.

Into the Pandemic - On the Home Front

The past couple of days have brought many fast-moving events and announcements as we seem to be heading into the first pandemic that I've been around to witness.

Stock markets around the world have plummeted with likely more to come.  Major sports events have been postponed or cancelled.  People are being advised not to travel but ARE being advised to wash hands frequently and watch for symptoms.  Confirmed cases around the world are growing.  But more on that in another post.

Here at home, I've been getting over a winter cold and am now just in the final stages of recovery.  A few more days of hacking should see the end of that.  Just in time to start watching for symptoms of COVID-19.  It's too bad that my immune system doesn't just have a general viral immunity after being exposed to the cold virus and my earlier flu vaccine.  

We had plans to travel to the Grand Canyon for some hiking with our grandsons in a week or so.  That's not happening, given the current situation.  Our son and his family were headed to Disney World in Florida but it closed just hours before they were scheduled to travel.  Otherwise, here at home, life pretty much continues as usual.  No cases have been identified in this part of the province so far and while people are concerned and watchful, it doesn't seem as though anyone is in much of a panic.

I've been doing some reading, aside from watching the political aspects of this situation.  There is certainly lots of information available.

Worldometer has the most recent statistics on almost every aspect of the disease.  

Medium.com has an extensive article which partly attempts to look into the future as the pandemic progresses.

Another site, COVID-19Canada.com has similar information.

And, across the pond, the Guardian has some reassuring news in an article.  Nine reasons, specifically.  It will be interesting to see how those play out.

Although I've not seen it myself, stories abound of people buying large amounts of toilet paper and hand sanitizer.  Not sure about the TP purchases.  This virus doesn't cause intestinal distress, so I'm not sure what people think they're gonna do with all that TP.

So, for now, we wait and see, carry on with life.