Saturday, November 24, 2012

The (Inadequate) Outcomes of Democracy?

The Myth of the Rational Voter (Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies) by Bryan Caplan.  Voters appear cynical and disillusioned about the whole process of democracy.  This book (written by an Economist) explores why democracies have the outcomes that they do, considering that most of the electorate is misinformed about what economic policies are best for them and the country.  Some brief clips of the author's main points:

"If you laid all economists end to end, they still wouldn't be able to reach a consensus"

Politicians' actions seem to be almost invisible to the general electorate.  This seems to mean that politicians can do what they want with impunity.  It's almost as if voters lived in isolation chambers.  Since they don't live in isolation chambers, they must be ignorant by choice.

One vote (your vote as an individual) is extraordinarily unlikely to decide the outcome of any election.  So, the marginal effect of voting randomly is zero.  If voters realize how little their own vote counts, it's not surprising that voters perceive their personal benefit of voting (especially informed voting) is about zero so they will choose the easiest solution and remain uninformed.

Most people probably want to be informed.  Aristotle called it a natural desire to know.  However, most people also don't want to know unpleasant facts.  This creates two, conflicting motives.  People want to learn about the world without sacrificing their worldview.  This is the root of the "don't confuse me with facts" human condition that we see so often.

"To get ahead in politics, leaders need a blend of naive populism and realistic cynicism.  No wonder the model politician has a law degree."

As we saw in the most recent US Election (and in almost everything we hear from our own Governments in Canada), if you repeat a series of points often enough, viewers will eventually come to accept them as truth.  "The receptivity of the great masses is very limited, their intelligence is small, but their power of forgetting is enormous.  In consequence of these facts, all effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand by your slogan".  The sad fact is that this quote didn't come from a contemporary politician or political hack, as you might reasonably assume.  It came from Adolf Hitler.

"Voters have a visceral dislike for candidates who seem intellectual, let alone try to make the electorate do arithmetic".  This would likely explain why George Dubya was more popular with many voters (at least at the beginning) than someone like Obama.  Never mind that the US President is the "leader of the free world".  Who would you rather have a beer with?  Hey.  Let's make him president....

This volume isn't a particularly easy read and takes more the usual degree of concentration to follow the author's prose.  So, there you are.  If you want to tinker with your worldview, go for it.

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