Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Some Basic Statistics


The Facts:  Individuals who remain unvaccinated or "under vaccinated", are multiple times more likely to get sick, hospitalized and die from the SARS-CoV-2 virus than vaccinated individuals when you consider the relative size of those two groups in the whole population. Here's why this is a fact:

One persistent distortion we hear the anti-vaxx community make regularly is how there are more vaccinated people dying than unvaccinated.  This is an example of something that has the skin of truth but is stuffed with lies.  Here's why.

These graphics come from the pages of Scientific American.  It's very worthwhile reading the article in full, but the basic message is contained in these two images.  Click on the images to see a much clearer picture.




What matters are the relative sizes of the populations you're comparing.  One group is far smaller than the other one.  And yet, deaths from that group are proportionally larger.  As the article mentions, suppose 100% of the population was vaccinated.  We know that the vaccines are only 95% effective, perhaps somewhat less.  This means that ALL of the deaths will be from that group of vaccinated people.  This shows that the vaccines most certainly work, even though they are not perfect.  Unvaccinated people have none of that protection.  

What matters are the deaths per 100K of each group.

In the graphics above, deaths are roughly the same from each group - slightly higher in the unvaccinated group, but let's say they're approximately equal.  However, when you look at the numbers on a per 100,000 basis, we can see that the unvaccinated are having a much poorer time of it.

Don't be misled by superficial comments from people who are determined to mislead you.  Look at real data and what that data means.




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