Election 2025 Prognostications

 

Canada's Federal Election will be held on April 28th, 2025.

Until a couple of weeks ago, it seemed the Conservatives would win a majority.  Actions by the American administration have turned that on its head.

My plan is to update this blog twice.  Once around mid-April and again after the election results are in.

Polls vary widely, but indications at this point (March 28th) seem to indicate the Liberals winning a majority.  This article seems to be the most optimistic.  I haven't tried to find countering views.  As a former PM once said, "Dogs know what to do with poles".... (or polls, whatever).  So for what it's worth, this is one prognostication as of 2 days ago.

Read Canadian Poll Shocker for the full article.  Here is the very brief summary.

According to EKOS:

📊 Liberals: 50% popular support
🧌 Conservatives: 35%
🟠 NDP: 7%
🟢 Greens & Bloc: somewhere between “meh” and “microscopic”

Seat-wise? It’s an absolute obliteration:

🟥 Liberals: 251 seats
🟦 Conservatives: 90 seats
🟠 NDP: 12 seats
🟩 Bloc: 24
🌱 Greens: 1
🪦 Poilievre: zero charisma, zero seat, zero plan

Next update around mid-campaign.