Lots of talk about possible nuclear plants, more gas-fired power plants, solar farms, wind farms.... But how does the cost of each option compare?
In a study prepared by the Ontario Clean Air Alliance and released at the end of February, 2023, several options were considered. They are discussed briefly in this report:
Ontario's Electricity Options: A Cost Comparison
The main take-home message from this study can be seen in this chart.
Over the years, I've been attracted by "cartoons" from XKCD.
Here is one that shows global warming graphically.
A Timeline of Earth's Average Temperature Since the Last Ice Age Glaciation
The spring and summer of 2023 saw an "unprecedented" number of intense wildfires, literally around the world. Northern Alberta, Greece, Italy, Spain and here in BC. The only reason Australia isn't in that list is because it was winter down under. But summer there is coming.
[As an aside, I'm not sure how many more seasons we need of "unprecedented" fires, or "unprecedented" floods, before more people are persuaded that whatever we're getting isn't just "the climate doing what it always does" but that there's something behind all this unprecedentedness. Something like AGW, for instance, but I digress, again...]
A good many fires are started by humans, mostly by carelessness. Abandoned campfires, forestry operations, ATV use.... A small number are caused by arson. In fact, the RCMP caught one person in Northern Alberta who had been setting fires.
According to the BC Wildfire Service, most forest fires in BC are caused by lightning, and that fits with an article (noted below) from the Fraser Valley Current where it was observed that BC's fires tend to be in mid-summer, when lightning tends to be the main cause. Alberta's fires tend to be earlier in the season when recreational causes (ie: human) are more prevalent.
The arson conspiracies are mostly groundless. Every year, some wildfires have been deliberately set. But there’s nothing new in that, and those blazes tend to be a very small proportion of all wildfires. There is also no indication that arsons are on the rise in any way or responsible for the largest fires.
In Canada, arsonists are almost never to blame for the most-serious fires, which tend to be sparked in remote areas either by accident or by lightning. (Although some have recklessly speculated the 2021 Lytton fire was caused by church-burning arsonists, a 2022 report—or any familiarity of the town, direction of wind, location of churches, and burn patterns—reveals the illogic of the speculation.)
Flannigan said arson ignitions in Canada comprise between 1% and 3% of fire starts. When arson does cause fires, it’s often in urban areas—like several that broke out last year in Mission—where they are quickly extinguished before they can grow too large.
Unsurprisingly, Danielle doesn't believe ANY that. She has brought in arson investigators to get to the bottom of what she is certain are all those fires that have been caused by arsonists. It's certainly an easier target for finger pointing if you can't accept that decades of fossil fuel burning have released a mega-gazillion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere that have caused the planet to warm up, making all these fires easier to start (by lightning) and to burn more intensely, no matter how many millions of $$ you throw at them (over $700M in BC so far this year).
“I think you’re watching, as I am, the number of stories about arson,” she responded. “I’m very concerned that there are arsonists.” Toronto Star, June 8, 2023
Danielle is nothing if not a conspiracy theorist and a big supporter of burning even more fossil fuels, so it's somewhat understandable that such views would be entrenched in her psyche. Danielle is also a person who seemingly has no filters at all, especially what we colloquially call bullshit filters (in polite company, let's refer to them as analytical filters). This was noted in an article appearing in the Globe & Mail on May 16, 2023, as follows:
It would be easy to dismiss the many odd things that come out of Danielle Smith’s mouth as the product of a disordered mind. Easy, and accurate.
The past week alone has provided several examples. Equating the vaccine-compliant majority with Hitler’s followers; suggesting police officers who enforced public-health orders should face criminal charges; calling for doctors to be removed from decision-making roles in the next pandemic, in favour of the military; all on top of her previous musings about ivermectin, the World Economic Forum, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and of course, Alberta sovereignty: she appears to have no analytical filter of any kind, but rather functions as a sort of ideological magpie, lining her nest with whatever shiny objects she happens across, without further examination.
Even The Beaverton weighed in on Danielle's comments.
“Trees that got vaccinated to protect their fellow trees from disease are actually Nazis,” Smith explained. “A lot of people are saying these fires are caused by nature, but I think it’s pretty clear that the fire is simply a reaction to the fascist vaccine mandates placed on all these trees by the federal government.”
I have made a pact to stay away from Twitter (currently known as X), but I did read this comment:Many fans of Danielle Smith’s leadership have echoed Smith’s views on the connection between vaccines and wildfires, some believing that this wildfire is simply a reaction to the vaccine, some saying that the wildfire was lit by the government merely to force trees to get vaccinated to become slaves, and others that the fire was born out of a lab in China and not a real fire. (The Beaverton, May 10, 2023
“Pointing fingers at fake causes for political gain is an insult to the people who have lost their homes, the firefighters trying to stop those wildfires, and all affected by the smoke and other secondary effects.” (Post of uncertain origin (to me) on Twitter, currently known as X)
I did find some reassurance that at least some people think Danielle is nuts. Take this letter that appeared last June 10th, 2023 in the Edmonton Journal:
As our eyes water, our children cough and we swelter under unseasonably warm weather and hazy skies, our premier’s plan for dealing with this phenomena is to bring in arson investigators.
Apparently, one of the root causes of the fires that have currently devastated an area the size of Switzerland in Canada and have resulted in death and destruction in recent years in Portugal, Australia, California, Russia, is obvious: individuals with malicious intent.
For those of us who are in constant amazement at how poorly informed our premier is, it should come as no surprise that in a 2020 column she perpetuated the claim that the Australian fires that killed and destroyed in a wide swath of that country were deliberately set by arsonists. The fact that this was disinformation spread online by climate change deniers and that it was quickly and authoritatively put to rest by Australian police and fire authorities doesn’t seem to have changed Ms. Smith’s mind.
Why let facts about an inconvenient truth get in the way of an opportunity to project blame onto individuals and give the appearance of decisive, if ineffective action. Going after an international cabal of pyromaniacs and reckless campers is so much more satisfying and less messy than confronting the impact our energy choices have had on the global environment.
Anthony McClellan, Edmonton
This is what happens when you have a wingnut in the Premier's office.
For months now, I've been thinking of writing a post about that wingnut in the Premier's office in Edmonton. Every time I see some outrageous story with her at the center, like the last one about the E-coli outbreak in Calgary, I think of writing down something about it, if just for the chance to rant. But wait, the MOST recent one was Danielle's assertion that Alberta could start its own pension plan with half of the money from the CPP. Very few days pass without hearing something completely insane from Alberta's dear leader.
The story is still unfolding, but it seems to be a repeat of a theme: Alberta is unappreciated. Alberta pays too much for too little. Alberta would be better on its own. Alberta has grievances and nobody else cares enough to listen. And if this sounds familiar, just remember, it is. It's all about "me", just like the so-called "Freedom Convoy" clowns. "I'm" unhappy. "I" don't want to wear a mask. "I don't want to limit my social contacts just so others won't get sick. And "I" certainly don't want someone else telling "me" what to do.
The "plan", such as it is, seems to involve Alberta demanding over half of the total assets of the Canada Pension Plan, around $334 Billion,and bringing in an Alberta Pension Plan. Polls indicate Albertans are wary of this, as they should be. How does a politician woo the wary? With money, of course. As an article from the CBC noted:
Dramatically slashed premiums! Larger paycheques! Higher benefits for seniors! Maybe a $10,000 bonus for retirees!
One has to ask: what kind of fantasy world does Danielle live in?
Just before the CPP/APP announcement (or was it just Danielle's stream-of-consciousness thinking?), the news was all about an E.coli outbreak in a number of Calgary daycares. I don't know how many people (Albertans especially) have made the connections here, but to my mind, this is a Public Health issue. And Alberta's last Chief Medical Officer (CMO), Dr Hinshaw, was summarily fired by Danielle almost as soon as she became Premier. Why did Danielle fire the CMO? Because COVID restrictions and vaccine mandates (even as anemic as they were)... Y'know, the very Public Health measures intended to reduce the numbers of sick and very sick people and reduce the impact on hospitals (not to mention other businesses), nevermind the ultimate goal of keeping people from dying. And remember that, in Alberta, the Cabinet made the ultimate decisions about all of these practices. This is a good example of politicians trying to manage things in which they have NO expertise. It's a good example of how something that should be a medical issue can be politicized. Once again, look at what happened during COVID. Masks, vaccines, distancing, staying home, ivermectin (horse dewormer, remember?).... ALL of these became toxic topics because politicians decided they needed to coddle some loony part of their base.
We asked survey respondents to evaluate four organizations that were important to the pandemic response, scoring them on a scale from one (poor) to 10 (excellent). They gave each a passing grade, but not a strong positive endorsement. Alberta Health Services and the Chief Medical Officer of Health scored highest, while the provincial and federal governments fared worse. (The Conversation, March 22, 2023)
But I digress. The E.coli outbreak. This is what happens when a Public Health Department is being run by a well-intentioned medical person but one who has NO training in the communication and management practices needed to run something like Public Health. This is what happens when politicians create a culture of interference and second-guessing in issues that they don't understand. Public Health ends up not doing the surveillance and enforcement that it needs to do. Eventually, people get sick. Some people die. In this case, it was kids - toddlers - getting sick. Some very sick. Quite a few hospitalized. Some on dialysis because of kidney damage.
And it took DAYS for the interim CMO of Health to make a public appearance and even longer for Danielle to show up making consoling and concerning noises ("we will get to the bottom of this"). It seemed like a variation on the "thoughts and prayers" message that we're used to seeing from American politicians after the most recent shoot-up at some elementary school. Kids died and the best you can do is wring your hands?
“I’m heartbroken by what these family families are going through,” Smith said in announcing the province will give families $2,000 for each child who became sick.
One has to wonder....if one of these kids dies, will that be worth more?
Secondary cases of E.coli have been appearing. These are people infected from other people, not from the original source (believed to be a kitchen). A simple message reminding exposed people to avoid contact with others (sound familiar - social distancing during COVID? Limiting contacts?). But that would be telling people what to do, wouldn't it?
Albertans should the OUTRAGED. The UCP (United Conservative Party) was SO concerned about upsetting some of its libertarian base that, during COVID, some of its actions could best be described as anemic and often canceled far too soon. Even with those half-hearted, watered down attempts at pandemic management, the person at the "buck stops here end" of the decision-making process, a certain Jason Kenney, was unceremoniously dumped by UCP luminaries and a true wingnut installed in the Premier's Office, one who really wouldn't upset that libertarian base.
To come back to the E.coli outbreak. This is what can happen when you have an avowed anti-vaxxer as Premier, one who is quite comfortable eviscerating Public Health in the interests of not upsetting some "Freedom-loving" nutcases who might have to wear a mask in a grocery store for 15 minutes. Who is comfortable firing a trained and experienced CMO of Health. Who will intercede with Justice officials in an attempt to set aside a case involving a pastor who refused to follow Public Health orders during a pandemic. A Premier who said, quite clearly, that she felt some of the most persecuted people she'd ever seen were those who refused to get vaccinated.
This is what can happen. And now it has. Fortunately, none of the toddlers have died, so far.
This is what happens when you have a wingnut in the Premier's office.
A recurring theme one sees these days is that switching to renewable sources of energy or adapting to the changes we're already seeing will be too expensive.
Other than a few quick comments, we can dispense with arguments about whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas or whether the planet is warming. These issues were settled decades ago.
The greenhouse effect was first described in 1824, although it wasn't given that name at the time. That came later. To quote from Wikipedia:
The existence of the greenhouse effect, while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824 by Joseph Fourier.[12] The argument and the evidence were further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1827 and 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide. She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."[13][14]
We will see some claiming that CO2 is essential, that plants need it, and so on. Like many fairy tales, there are some grains of truth in what they say. Without CO2, Earth would be too cold for us and many other organisms. Plants do absorb CO2 to make carbohydrates. Unfortunately, that glosses over more important truths. This article from NOAA covers most of the important bits. Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, rapidly. That increase can be linked to increasing CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. The amount of CO2 in our atmosphere is higher than it's ever been for the past 3 million years. Global temperatures are rising as a consequence.
As of a month or so ago, BC had spent over $500 million fighting forest fires. In 2021, it was over $700 million.
Europe generally (especially Spain, Greece and France) has seen forest fire costs exceed $ billion Euros (that's about C$5.7 billion) so far this year.
In the USA, the cost of fighting forest fires in 2022 was US$3.7 Billion.
That article goes on to note:
For instance, a study by University College London stated in the report showed that California’s 2018 wildfires alone cost the U.S. a whopping $148.5 billion. Capital losses and health costs within the state amounted to $59.9 billion.
The True Cost of Wildfires is discussed in this article.
It's important to note that climate change doesn't "cause" the fires. It just makes conditions more conducive to fire starts and more intense fires. Warmer weather and droughts increase tree mortality, adding to the problem.
Climate change has been a key factor in increasing the state’s risk for wildfire. Hotter temperatures create drier conditions, exacerbate drought, and make fires easier to spread and harder to put out.
I'm going to pretty much ignore silly claims that "most of the forest fires" were caused by arsonists, even if Alberta Premier Danielle claims that they were. There is NO evidence to support such a claim. Danielle has made other silly (and dangerous) claims. Albertans are paying the cost of those silly claims, as recent e-coli outbreaks in Calgary make very clear. That's a story for another post.
Smoke from this summer's forest fires in Canada made its way across North America, all the way to the East Coast. It is estimated that 8 million people die from air pollution globally each year. Forest fires are only one part of that pollution, but they are a significant part.
And, of course, fires add to CO2 emissions, which adds to warming, and so on. Fires also reduce the size of our forests, reducing the ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.
In our area, it's been true for some time that domestic fire insurance policies are not available from at least some insurers during the summer. That added risk for some people is also an added cost, it just isn't easy to quantify. Also in our area, vocal conspiracists have disrupted discussions about bringing in Climate Action Plans, even as massive fires burn in our province.
Despite these and other costs, there are arguments that adaptation and mitigation are too expensive?
Someone needs to explain that line of "thinking", because it's not clear to me.
Here in Canada, the past summer was marked by wildfires, unprecedented in size and intensity. Smoke from those fires blanketed (ironically) Canada's oil capital Calgary with days of thick smog. It even reached as far as the East Coast of North America. In case anyone wants to toss this off, note that established research shows this kind of air pollution increases neurological disorders not to mention other serious health effects. The solution seems to be to wear masks but perhaps best, spending more of our summers inside. Wonderful.
Articles are appearing highlighting how unprepared we are to deal with these conditions. This story, and many others, highlight American unpreparedness, but it's no better here in Canada. And people are moving because of it, one of the things this article points out.
Nationally, our government is mostly tiptoeing around the whole issue, mainly, in my opinion, because politics is a short-term game and currently the Liberals are down in the polls, fighting rearguard actions against the Conservatives who don't believe there actually IS a climate crisis. And it's the Federal government that is building the Keystone expansion which guarantees another few decades of business as usual.
Provincially, we're continuing LNG development. Maybe better than coal, but a fossil fuel nonetheless. I've been unable to identify much in Provincial actions that are addressing either the root causes of the climate crisis OR how we prepare, not for what's coming, but what's already here.
Locally, our regional government is trying to roll out a Climate Action Plan, something that is being loudly opposed by a group of nitwits who apparently believe that ANYTHING the government does is an intrusion into our personal space and who also claim that this whole climate thing is a hoax, that climate is always changing, that CO2 is plant food, and other similar nonsense. The same people, possibly, who claimed, with disastrous results, that COVID was also a hoax.
So, if this past summer didn't focus more minds on the crisis we're facing, one wonders what will. Another summer like this one? Two more summers?
On a per person comparison with a number of other countries, Canada does NOT come out well, according to a study done by a Research organization in Berlin.
The full story can be read here.
The naysayers, of course, are doubling down, repeating the tired old line that Canada only contributes about 1.6% to global emission totals.
It's helpful to that argument that Canada only has a population of just under 40 million. Unfortunately, that small population coupled with our emissions, makes us one of the worst polluters on the planet, as this article points out:
Any Way You Slice it, Canada is one of the Worst Emitters on the Planet
"“This is one of the challenges our government faces ... and I think it shines a light on the need for a just transition because so much of the reasons why we're up there is that we are digging up and providing fossil fuels to the world,” Fenton said.
That massive contribution to climate change “has undermined a lot of the mythology of Canada ... being a good actor on the world stage,” he said."
