Trusted Sources - Why You Shouldn't Believe Everything You Read in the COVID Era

OK, Sada Nam Khalsa, you claim that you have "important medical information" for the local community.  About masks.  Honestly, I've come to the point where I'd sooner block people who promote false or misleading information, but this is one article that is simply dangerous to the health of too many people and to our society in general.  

This was the article you wanted to promote.

Unfortunately, I realize, based on previous conversations with you, that your mind is pretty much made up, coming at things from an anti-science, pro-woo worldview, so I don't really know why I'm bothering.  In any case, I won't be debating this with you.  I just want you to know that this kind of "information" is unhelpful, not to mention dangerous, and flies in the face of almost everything we have learned about biology, medicine, epidemiology, vaccinations, viruses, bacteria, to name just a few scientific disciplines, over the past several hundred years.  If you want to pretend you can live your life the way we did 200 years ago, that's your choice, but suggesting it as an aspiration for everyone else is simply dangerous.  Here is why.

First, let's look at the publication the article appeared in, The Post Millennial.  This is how that publication is described in Wikipedia:

The Post Millennial is a conservative Canadian online news magazine started in 2017. It publishes national and local news and has a large amount of opinion content. It grew rapidly since 2018, and has been criticized for releasing misinformation and articles written by fake personas, for employing an editor with ties to white supremacist-platforming and pro-Kremlin media outlets, and for opaque funding and political connections.

 I don't see any of that as positive or describing the kind of publication I should trust in any way at all.  The fact that you seem to is disturbing, to say the least.  The Wikipedia entry goes on to expand on those basic points.  Are you comfortable associating yourself with a publication like that?

Second, let's consider the article in general, and its author.  It's an opinion piece, written by lawyer John Carpay.  He's a lawyer, not someone trained in any aspect of medicine or science so far as I am aware.  He is, therefore, not qualified to offer any valuable opinion on these topics.  He certainly may have an opinion, but it's not worth much because it's on a topic for which he has no qualifications.

Mr Carpay himself is one of the prime movers behind the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms.  That organization claims to be non-partisan but has had dealings with right-wing organizations in the USA.  While his association with the Reform Party, the Alberta Wildrose Party and the United Conservative Party doesn't automatically disqualify him from anything, it does indicate quite clearly where his political sentiments lie.  I wouldn't trust someone with those credentials any further than I could spit, but that's a topic for another time.

As to his opinion piece....  

• He takes a swipe at governments who instituted "those harm-causing lockdowns", ignoring the success that such lockdowns (and other measures) had in bringing the spread of the virus under some control.  Places that didn't are paying the human (and economic) price now.  I will go further and suggest that people protesting simple measures like wearing masks are actually doing more damage to the economy by making things worse and making sure the damage lasts longer.  The list is long, but just witness what's happening right now, as of July 2020, in Florida, Texas, Brazil, the Major League Baseball "startup", and so on.  You want to prolong the problems we're in, just keep this kind of anti-science nonsense going and you will get your wish.

• He refers to a study about masks but seems to completely misinterpret what the study is saying.  The study was looking at heathcare workers, where masks can be worn for hours at a time and the study certainly did indicate that cloth masks were less effective than surgical masks.  But the use of masks currently being debated is not that at all.  Nobody is saying that masks need to be worn 24/7, just when you can't keep distance from others.  As for improper use, yes, that is a concern.  Possibly people are smart enough to learn how to use a mask properly with some simple instruction?  The recommendation was that cloth masks should not be used by healthcare workers.

• Decreased oxygen levels in those wearing masks?  This has been successfully refuted in many, many tests in recent weeks.  Frankly, it's not even worth talking about.  Your blood oxygen level will not be affected by wearing a mask, see here and here.  Nonsense about the "dangers" of wearing masks is simply just malarkey.

• The author keeps repeating the same incorrect line about how masks (especially cloth masks) do little to prevent infection.  The problem is this: that is not what the masks are intended to do.  The clear intention is to prevent all those water droplets that you exhale from escaping and getting into the face of someone else.  Those water droplets are what carry the virus.  Mask wearing helps protect others, not you.

• As for mask wearing by healthy people?  We have known for quite awhile that people can spread the virus before they have symptoms - ie: when they may seem perfectly healthy.  Since there is no way to determine instantly whether you are actually infected and if you are contagious, this argument has a severe problem.

• He include more twaddle about needing to see someone's face, that it's part of our identity, and so on.  Sure, but these are exceptional circumstances.  I've also been to a number of Asian countries where mask-wearing is quite common.  Somehow all those millions manage their lives and personal interactions even while wearing masks.  And, just in case you want to argue that masks haven't protected people in those countries, I would mention just one (of many), Taiwan.  They locked down, mask-wearing was already very common, there was much testing and contact tracing, and they brought the infection rate under control, avoiding the shit-storm that we see hitting a number of American states right now.

• For the author to use Quebec's ban on face coverings as justification for protesting mandatory face masks for public health reason is just nonsense.  Everyone with any sense knows that Quebec's ban on face coverings a few years ago was racially motivated.  I don't think we really want to open that can of worms during a public health emergency.  I also note that parts of Quebec are bringing in mandatory face masks in some places.  This further shows that their earlier ban was just targeting religious and ethnic minorities.  The government's hypocrisy in this is stunning but not surprising.

• The author also subscribes to the faulty notion of "natural herd immunity".  This notion has been discredited clearly over the past few weeks.  It's hard to believe that anyone would suggest this as a strategy, especially as more and more evidence becomes available.  Naturally acquired immunity may be short-lived, long-term health consequences may be very serious, at current rates of infection, it may take years before a critical proportion of the population is infected and (possibly) become immune (although that immunity might not really be helpful or possible).  It's not only faulty as a strategy, it's dangerous and, frankly, callous in its disregard for people's lives and health.  Another article can be found here, discussing the notion of herd immunity in the UK.

In short, the author's various contentions just don't hold much water.  He might not like wearing a mask, personally, but there is no medical reason not to wear a mask, masks do help contain a person's exhaled water droplets, and this notion that somehow our personal freedoms are at risk if we wear a mask....  Basically, it's all just twaddle.  

More on mask wearing and oxygen levels can be found in this article but it is similar to many, many others.  Mask wearing just does not affect blood oxygen levels.

So my question is why would you insist on spreading this kind of nonsense?  Do you want to potentially cause harm to other people?  Do you want your community to be the site of a virus outbreak?  Do you want more people to be hospitalized, be placed on ventilators, or die?  Do you want even more damage to be done to our economy and people's jobs?

Van Conversion - The Parts

Ram 2500 ProMaster van conversion project - the parts and the process.

I purchased this van in September of 2019.  At that time, it had no windows in the cargo section at all, no insulation and only a rudimentary plywood floor.

The first task was to remove everything from the inside, including that plywood floor that was polyurethaned to the floor.  That was a chore!.

The earliest part of the project is described in a post I wrote back in October, 2019.

Windows:

I added 5 windows - two in the rear doors, two on one side and one large window on the sliding door.

The windows mostly came from Amazon and eBay.  The one window in the sliding door, which you can see in the picture above, came from Motion Windows in Vancouver, Washington.

By mid-February, the project had progressed to the point that it was actually looking like a camper on the inside.  The windows were in by then and insulation and paneling was progressing.  That was described in this post.

By April, the basics were mostly completed.  This required a few more holes in the van for  things like a roof vent, solar cables, furnace, water heater, shore power connector....  I have to say that eventually you do get kind of used to cutting big holes in the skin of your new van.  Measure, mark it out, tape it up and go at it with the drill and jig saw.

What follows is a quick outline of the various parts that I used in the build.

Insulation and paneling:

The whole inside is insulated with 2 inches of blue styrofoam, glued in with cans of spray foam and an appropriate polyurethane adhesive (see link below).  I didn't keep track of the number of cans of spray foam I used, but there must have been at least 20.  Unfortunately, those cans can't be sent to metal recycling so they ended up in general garbage.

Styrofoam was mostly cut very carefully on a large table saw.

The insulation was covered with 1/4-inch birch plywood, glued in place with that polyurethane adhesive: Titebond Fast Set Polyurethane Construction Adhesive, available at most building supply stores.  

Electrical:

• Multi US 3300 4-step charger (120v charger for shore power)
• 12 Circuit fuse block
• Suburban furnace
• Camco catalytic heater
• Fan-Tastic Roof Vent
• Promaster roof vent adapter
• Suburban water heater
• Shore power connection box
• Blue Sea Charging relay
• Wall thermostat
• Solar cable entry gland

There are a number of explanations for wiring up your van conversion to be found on the Internet (especially YouTube), but I found this one to be most helpful for me and I've pretty much followed it with a few modifications.  For instance, my system doesn't have an inverter and my solar controller doesn't have a remote (and I'm not sure why I'd need one).   Electrical wiring diagram.  

Heating, Cooling and Hot Water:

I have two heat sources in the van.  The main heat source is a Suburban 2438 ABK furnace with electronic ignition and a fan.  It's paired with a wall thermostat that also incorporates an off switch.

The second heat source is a Camco catalytic heater.  I got this because it doesn't need a power source.  My plan at the moment is to set up some quick-connect fittings to the propane line.  I see this as more of an emergency heater.

The fridge is a NovaKool R4500 12v unit.  It draws around 4A  connected to a 12v source.  I insulated the compartment the fridge slides into so that should reduce the duty cycle a bit.  So far, running it constantly for several weeks, the batteries and solar system has been able to keep up without breaking a sweat.

Still in progress is a Suburban SW6DE gas-fired/electric hot water heater.  This meant one more hole in the side of the van (I think I'm up to 10 holes, so far).  Once I get my water tank I will hook up the tank, a 12v water pump, my full-sized single-basin sink, the water heater and a shower.  This part is still a work in progress.  The plan is to have a bike platform off the back of the van which can serve as a shower stall when the rear doors are opened.  A hand-held shower will be used to get you wet.

Woodwork:

Most of the cabinetry was made with 1/2" G1S plywood, glued together with the construction adhesive and secured with finish nails and then glued and screwed to the plywood skin on the inside of the van.  This installation is basically permanent.  I don't even want to think about what it would be like to remove anything now.

Living the Pandemic - Why Presidents and Politics Don't Mix

One of my favourite podcasts is a science show from the BBC, called Science in Action.

A recent episode dealt with (among other things) genetic work that has been done with viruses.  An actual scientist was interviewed about his work that goes back 15 years, both in North America and in China.

The whole episode is worth listening to, but if you have time constraints, start around the 28-minute mark and listen to the end.  Link is in the picture.

Living the Pandemic - A Reflection on Knowledge

Recently, I've enjoyed reading essays from Science for Hippies.  One recent article deals with the rise of the "armchair experts", those people with Google PhDs.

There is a tendency these days to believe that a bit of time watching some YouTube videos and googling a few terms related to viruses will tell us all we need to know, but, as this article points out, people have a tendency to think they know more about a topic than they actually do.  There's a term for that, and it's called the Dunning-Kruger Effect.  Quoted from the article:

The original title of the study was: “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments” and, entertainingly, it featured a bank robber who covered his face with lemon juice under the belief that security cameras wouldn’t be able to see him. Lemon juice, after all, is a great way to write in invisible ink.

 It’s good to be skeptical. It’s good to ask questions. But the beginning of wisdom is not so much to know that we know nothing, but to know how much we don’t know.  Smart people know that.

I've appreciated the sensible comments that this author has.  More of us should take heed.

Living the Pandemic - Two Months In

Isolation Manor 2 - May 18th, 2020

Total Confirmed Cases = 4,800,000     Total Deaths - 316,500

Deaths per Million Population - USA - 275    Canada - 153

So here we are.  Things started to come apart around March 12th and one month ago, total deaths from the virus were "only" 136,000.

Various countries have started "opening up" parts of the economy.  There have been protests from various factions concerned that their "freedoms" are being infringed upon.  Things have become even more political.  The usual suspects have been pointing the finger of blame at China.  The American government has repeatedly shown stunning incompetence but not enough to dismay ardent supporters.

In Brazil, they apparently have two viruses to fight - the corona virus and the Bolsonaro virus.  In that country, the second health minister has quit and the previous one fired for disagreeing with the President.    Some hospitals in Brazil are near collapse.

The UK continues to lead Europe in cases and deaths.  Sweden, sometimes presented as a role model on how to deal with the pandemic without shutting down the economy, is experiencing a "surprising" number of deaths.  Even the country's chief epidemiologist is  surprised.  Personally, I would not like to find out that my nation's chief epidemiologist was surprised by something like this.

Attitudes on mask-wearing seem to be changing rapidly.  In a matter of a week or so, people have taken to this as an acceptable and desirable course of action.  Everything I've read or heard about mask use would suggest that such a practice can help limit the spread of the virus.  The irony is that only a year or two ago the nation was in the throes of a rather nasty argument over whether a few women should be allowed to wear face coverings in public.  My, how quickly things change.  I wonder if Quebec will re-visit its recently-passed laws on this, especially considering that the province leads the country in COVID-19 cases and deaths.  If there is one good thing about this virus outbreak it might be that we won't have to listen to stupid comments about face coverings for a few years.  Perhaps women wearing a niqab will be seen as just being ahead of their time.

We have seen our grandkids a bit - the boys at a somewhat cautious distance, the girls online.  Pandemic education continues and it appears that will be needed for months.  There will be no regular school until fall and even then it won't likely be full time for everyone.

Stores that have remained open are relatively busy but generally people have been respectful of each other's personal space.  I haven't seen any instances of jackass behaviour.  Even in the parks, people seem to be keeping their distance from others.

I continue to do what I always do - work at home on projects.  The only time I go out is to get food, some supplies and help with fire mitigation work in the woods around the subdivision, and that only with one other fellow.  We keep our distance from each other.

Life goes on.

Isolation Manor Out.

The Gun Debates, Again - Morning Rant III

The other day, the Federal Government announced regulatory changes that immediately bans some 1500 types of what are called military style or assault-style weapons.

Among the predictable criticisms was that this was just a knee-jerk response to the massacre that happened over a week ago in Nova Scotia where a lone gunman killed 22 people over several hours, while masquerading as an RCMP officer.

Those criticisms ignore the fact that changes in gun regulations have been in the works for some time now and probably would have been presented to Parliament by now if this virus outbreak hadn't interrupted things.   So it's not really knee-jerk anything, but the events in Nova Scotia certainly presented the opportunity for a timely response of some kind.

Personally, the mere fact that another mass murder happened strikes me as a perfect reason to take a very long, hard look at gun laws in Canada, among other pertinent matters.

Other examples of what I'll call faux outrage is that the government's actions were undemocratic and didn't follow "due process", whatever that means in this context.

First, what the government did was make regulatory changes and these didn't have to come before Parliament.  I'm expecting that they will, along with other changes, when Parliament returns to more normal operations.

Second, those nay-sayers need to be aware that the previous government under Stephen Harper brought in numerous changes by Order-in-Council, a total of 25, according to one source, and to top it off, Harper tried to hide those changes from Canadians, trying keeping them secret.  I'll give Trudeau credit for being open enough to announce these changes publicly rather than trying to sneak them through as Harper repeatedly did..

Claims that these bans infringe on some people's rights is specious.  There is no right to own a firearm in Canada.  This isn't the USA.  Owning a gun is more or less in the same category as driving a car.  You can do it, under certain conditions, but it's not a right.  That's just the way it is in Canada, and all the chest beating on Facebook posts won't change that fact.

Also high on the list of criticisms is that these bans "make criminals out of ordinary gun owners".  This is really just poppycock.  To this point, I haven't heard anyone say that they had to turn in their AK47s or whatever they're called, because very few "ordinary gun owners" own such weapons.  I know what kinds of guns are used for hunting deer, moose and gophers, and I would imagine that it's pretty rare that any of the now-banned weapons would be used.  So you "ordinary gun owners" really aren't being affected by this ban.  You don't own them, you don't have to give them up.  You can still go hunting.  Life really hasn't changed for you at all.

So the guns in the Nova Scotia rampage weren't legally owned.  Stolen, likely, and it would be interesting to know where they were stolen from.  Perhaps brought into Canada from the USA, where they REALLY have a major gun problem.  If there is one point that the critics have made that is eminently reasonable it is that Canada needs to tighten up border controls to prevent guns from entering.  No argument there.

As for the fact that the guns were stolen?  True.  Stolen from where and from whom?  That would be worth knowing.  But someone, perhaps not realizing what he was saying, noted that the airplanes that flew into the World Trade Center were stolen.  Hmmm.  Yes, that's true.  What's also true is that in the aftermath of 9/11 there was a massive change in screening and other laws to control what you could take on a plane, how luggage is handled and to security in general.  If you've flown in the past 15 years you will know all too well how you have to remove your belt, your shoes, take only toothpaste tubes under 125 ml on the plane, can't take drinking water through security, get scanned....  It's all a big inconvenience, to everyone.  I'm a responsible citizen and I'm being inconvenienced just like everyone else is.  I'd never do anything with a pair of scissors if I were allowed to take them on a plane with me.  But I'm subject to the same restrictions that everyone else is.  That's life, if I want to fly.

I know that nobody likes to be inconvenienced by such things as this, but let's examine another situation.



When I fly, I have to be searched, I have to take off my belt and shoes, I can't take a toothpaste tube holding more than 125 ml on the plane. I once even had a small ball confiscated, something I used to massage a painful muscle and one which I had carried, unchallenged, through at least 4 or 5 different security clearances in 3 different countries. You might think that my age, my profile, my history should all show that I am a very, very low risk person on a plane. No matter. I have to be subjected to the same restrictions as anyone else. And that little massage ball was taken away. As was a toothpaste tube that held 250 ml of Colgate's finest.

Claiming that most gun owners are "not the problem" is undoubtedly true, but it seems to miss the point. We are all inconvenienced one way or another by various laws and restrictions, even though "we are certainly NOT the kind of people the law is designed to control".

If responsible gun owners really believe that there are better solutions to this problem of gun misuse, perhaps they should band together with everyone else who is concerned about the problem and lobby for those actions that WILL make a difference. But this whining about "anti-democratic, dictatorial, power grabbing libtards" isn't winning them any support at all. They are looking like the special interest group that I suppose they really are, whining for special treatment because "they're not the problem".


Finally, for now, let me say this.  The overwhelming majority of Canadians are of the opinion that these weapons need to be banned.  One recent poll I read about suggested 80%.  It's high time that the government acted on those opinions rather than caving to the gun lobby the way they cave to the NRA in the USA.  This is democracy in action, folks.  Get used to it.

Analyzing the Pandemic - Social Responsibility

This morning's local CBC radio morning show (Daybreak Kelowna) carried an interview with an entrepreneur who is now recovering after picking up the virus on a ski trip near Golden, BC.

" 'Selfishness has repercussions': Dragon's Den star recovering after catching COVID-19 on ski trip Lane Merrifield ‘frustrated’ and ‘angry’ to find out fellow skier had been overseas days before group trip."

Apparently, one of the other guests at the lodge had been to Angola just before the ski trip and was exhibiting some symptoms (which he hid), until he wasn't able to go out skiing and one of the man's children notified lodge staff that he was showing symptoms and that he had traveled recently.

The man was helicoptered out and other guests were notified.

"Selfishness has repercussions, and I think this gentleman decided to ignore all warnings, ignore all requests and just do what he wanted to do."

"He was adamant that either it's no big deal or maybe it couldn't happen to him or people are making much ado about nothing," Merrifield said.

The result was that seven others from the trip tested positive for the virus. Merrifield described his illness as pretty severe, although he didn't need to be hospitalized.

"It's taking awhile for my body to kind of come back from this one, unlike a cold or typical flu," he said."  He noted in the interview that all of the ski trip participants were in excellent physical condition with no underlying medical issues.  They still came down with the illness, hard.

"Merrifield urges people to heed warnings from health officials in regards to COVID-19 and staying home.

"Now's the time to be as selfless as we possibly can be and help each other out.""

It's worth repeating that it's been a directive from public health officials here in Canada for quite a few weeks that IF you have been out of the country, you need to self-isolate for 14 days after you return.  Following that advice would have prevented this outbreak from happening.

Merrifield also noted in the interview that he had parents in their 70s and was very concerned about what could have happened had he visited them before he knew he had been exposed.